As Bitcoin approaches its halving, the significant buying power of ETFs is set to overshadow the traditional supply squeeze effect expected from the halving. This dynamic introduces a need for traders to balance the historical impact of halvings with the contemporary influence of ETFs on Bitcoin’s availability and price.•We are nearing the stage of the market cycle where the supply dynamics of Bitcoin are increasingly influenced by the actions of long-term holders (LTHs). As their decisions to sell or hold can significantly impact market liquidity and sentiment, traders should closely monitor the Long-Term Holder Market Inflation Rate to anticipate market shifts and adapt their strategies accordingly.•Reaching an ATH before the halving presents a new scenario, yet the cycle’s progression mirrors past trends if aligned from the April 2021 ATH. The calming influence of ETFs on corrections suggests stability, but a potential decrease in ETF demand could amplify market fluctuations, highlighting the need for strategic vigilance in trading approaches.